Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv?

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resolved Jan 1

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Assume this question about Ukraine being invaded in 2022 resolves positively: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/ In this case, would Russian troops enter Kyiv in 2022 as asked here? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/ If there's no Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this question resolves N/A. Feb 20, 12:42am: mind the exact criterion on metaculus; the troops should have Russian insignia and there should be at least 100 troops entering the city.

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predictedNO

This could have easily happened, e.g., wiki states: "During the night, a Russian convoy attempted to set up a temporary base at Syrets Metro", and Syrets is halfway between city borders and city center. Since there's no robust evidence, resolving N/A just like the metaculus question.

Bump, please resolve this.

This should resolve N/A since the linked market resolved Ambiguous on May 31.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-93881

predictedYES

will this question resolve at close?

predictedNO

When are we going to close this?

Can you close this as NO? There are no Russian troops near Kyiv

I'd be shocked if at no point did 100 Russian soldiers enter "the city of kyiv" (as defined by its legal borders) already. I'd be slightly less shocked but still very surprised if the pedants at Metaculus don't successfully argue that.

100 prisoners of war shouldn't count if they were brought to Kyiv from other places because then they had the consent of the Ukrainian government to "enter" it.

I assume 100 prisoners of wars located in Kyiv does not count?

This will be resolved when the metaculus question is resolved

Will you resolve this early when the outcome is sufficiently clear?

Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2

Semi-arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-september

I've created this other market to facilitate debate on this: https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/will-team-a-be-more-influential-in

Likely, because a key geopolitical objective would be to force a regime change or reorientation towards Russia. Boots in Kyiv would be a great way to achieve that.

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