Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv?
Politics•Wars•Ukraine-Russia war•Russia•Ukraine
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resolved Jan 1
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N/A
Assume this question about Ukraine being invaded in 2022 resolves positively: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/ In this case, would Russian troops enter Kyiv in 2022 as asked here? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/ If there's no Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this question resolves N/A. Feb 20, 12:42am: mind the exact criterion on metaculus; the troops should have Russian insignia and there should be at least 100 troops entering the city.
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predicted NO

This could have easily happened, e.g., wiki states: "During the night, a Russian convoy attempted to set up a temporary base at Syrets Metro", and Syrets is halfway between city borders and city center. Since there's no robust evidence, resolving N/A just like the metaculus question.

Bump, please resolve this.

This should resolve N/A since the linked market resolved Ambiguous on May 31.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/#comment-93881

predicted YES
will this question resolve at close?
predicted NO
When are we going to close this?
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Can you close this as NO? There are no Russian troops near Kyiv
bought Ṁ50 of YES
I'd be shocked if at no point did 100 Russian soldiers enter "the city of kyiv" (as defined by its legal borders) already. I'd be slightly less shocked but still very surprised if the pedants at Metaculus don't successfully argue that.
bought Ṁ30 of NO
100 prisoners of war shouldn't count if they were brought to Kyiv from other places because then they had the consent of the Ukrainian government to "enter" it.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I assume 100 prisoners of wars located in Kyiv does not count?
bought Ṁ1 of YES
This will be resolved when the metaculus question is resolved
bought Ṁ100 of YES
Will you resolve this early when the outcome is sufficiently clear?
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Semi-arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-september
bought Ṁ4 of YES
I've created this other market to facilitate debate on this: https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/will-team-a-be-more-influential-in
bought Ṁ30 of YES
Likely, because a key geopolitical objective would be to force a regime change or reorientation towards Russia. Boots in Kyiv would be a great way to achieve that.

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