Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president? | Manifold

Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president?

86

Ṁ1kṀ9.7k

2030

16%

chance

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Market resolves yes if Zelenskyy is still the president of Ukraine while Putin is not president of Russia anymore, and no if it's the other way around.

Market context

Ukraine-Russia war

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Putin's already 71, six years over the life expectancy for russian men.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@ShakedKoplewitz Indeed. Zelenskyy's a lot younger which is why I bet YES.

Ukrainan law currently prohibits holding elections during wartime. It also prohibits negotiations with Putin. Thus, it seems that, under current law, Zelenskyy cannot be replaced while Putin is in power.

predictedNO

Predict zelensky to step down after the war, while Putin hangs on for six months until couped.

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