Will replacing Zaluzhnyi with Syrskyi turn out disastrous for Ukraine?
Will replacing Zaluzhnyi with Syrskyi turn out disastrous for Ukraine?
10
190Ṁ2192030
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve YES if there are severe negative strategic consequences for Ukraine that can be reasonably attributed to today's change of the commander in chief.
Otherwise, it will resolve NO, but it may take some time.
Somewhat subjective market, so I will not bet on it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
69% chance
Will Zelensky survive the Russo-Ukrainian War?
84% chance
Will Zelenskyy Be Illiberal by 2030?
33% chance
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy survive 2025?
90% chance
Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as president of Ukraine in the next election?
33% chance
Will Oleksandr Syrsky still be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
53% chance
Will either Putin or Zelenskyy be deposed, die or leave office first?
Will Zelenskyy outlast Putin as president?
25% chance
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be reelected president of Ukraine?
20% chance
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
12% chance