Gary Marcus 2024 predictions
44
1.4kṀ4308resolved Jan 22
Resolved
YES7-10 GPT-4 level models
Resolved
YESPrice wars
Resolved
YESNo robust solution to hallucinations
Resolved
YESModest profits, split 7-10 ways
Resolved
71%No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
Resolved
N/AVery little moat for anyone
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NOModest lasting corporate adoption
Gary Marcus made this tweet https://x.com/garymarcus/status/1766871625075409381?s=46&t=B66Otgh2q0Cl91N3A5P9ZA
with 7 predictions on LLMs this market will track them and their outcomes. I will not trade on this market. Some will be pretty subjective I will do my best to find a consensus resolution but may well end up resolving them N/A if it is not clear.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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