Gary Marcus 2024 predictions
Basic
36
2.2k
2025
89%
No robust solution to hallucinations
86%
Modest lasting corporate adoption
73%
Price wars
59%
7-10 GPT-4 level models
59%
Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
56%
Very little moat for anyone
36%
No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)

Gary Marcus made this tweet https://x.com/garymarcus/status/1766871625075409381?s=46&t=B66Otgh2q0Cl91N3A5P9ZA

with 7 predictions on LLMs this market will track them and their outcomes. I will not trade on this market. Some will be pretty subjective I will do my best to find a consensus resolution but may well end up resolving them N/A if it is not clear.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Modest lasting corporate adoption
bought Ṁ10 Modest lasting corpo... NO

Can you explain how you intend to resolve this one?

I work for Microsoft, and we're all in on pushing LLMs in every possible product. That sounds like much more than modest adoption.