Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
10
150Ṁ2022028
13%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Gary Marcus uploads himself this counts.
If Gary fails to publicly predict AGI before AGI is created by this question's standards, and Gary is subsequently paperclipped or uploaded (etc.) then this resolves Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2028?
32% chance
Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?
7% chance
Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?
19% chance
Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
17% chance
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will Robin Hanson get AGI-pilled in 2025?
33% chance
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
91% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
50% chance
Sam Altman right about AGI by end of 2025?
19% chance