The U.S. and Iran have a long-running confrontation that usually stops short of direct military strikes on Iranian territory. Iran is currently experiencing internal unrest, while the U.S. has recently demonstrated a willingness to use military force abroad, including intervention in Venezuela under President Trump. In this market, a “strike” refers specifically to U.S. missiles, drones, or aircraft delivering munitions that hit physical targets inside Iran. This market asks whether that threshold is crossed by January 31, 2026.