The U.S. and Iran have a long-running confrontation that usually stops short of direct military strikes on Iranian territory. Iran is currently experiencing internal unrest, while the U.S. has recently demonstrated a willingness to use military force abroad, including intervention in Venezuela under President Trump. In this market, a “strike” refers specifically to U.S. missiles, drones, or aircraft delivering munitions that hit physical targets inside Iran. This market asks whether that threshold is crossed by January 31, 2026.
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From Axios 1/18/26: "The order never came": Behind the scenes of Trump's Iran pullback ("This account of Trump's decision-making over the past ten days is based on interviews with four U.S. officials, two Israeli officials and two other sources with knowledge of the behind-the-scenes discussions."
Idk why people are pulling out while the US is bringing into the area more stuff, guess we'll see.
I think it's too early to decisively say no
"Trump says Iran has stopped killing protesters, leans away from military action"
From NYT: "Nonessential U.S. military personnel are being evacuated from a large air base in Qatar as Mr. Trump weighs military action in response to the Iranian government’s crackdown on protests. The Pentagon began moving personnel because of the tension with Iran, according to two U.S. military officials"