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MANIFOLD
First US strike on Iran on
75
แน€1kแน€22k
resolved Feb 3
100%99.2%
No strike within this period
0.1%
January 30
0.1%
January 31
0.1%
February 1
0.5%
February 2

Resolution criteria

Each date resolves YES if the United States conducts military strikes on targets within Iranian territory by 11:59 PM UTC (6:59 PM ET) on that date, with the rest resolving no. Strikes must involve direct attacks on Iranian soil by US military forces, including but not limited to airstrikes, cruise missile strikes, or drone strikes. Strikes must be kinetic; a cyberattack would not count. Israeli strikes would not count.

Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming US military action against Iranian targets within Iranian territory. Resolution will be based on the time of the strikes rather than the time of reporting, as best as I can ascertain.

This description was generated by AI.

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