The U.S. and Iran have a long-running confrontation that usually stops short of direct military strikes on Iranian territory. Iran is currently experiencing internal unrest, while the U.S. has recently demonstrated a willingness to use military force abroad, including intervention in Venezuela under President Trump. In this market, a “strike” refers specifically to U.S. missiles, drones, or aircraft delivering munitions that hit physical targets inside Iran. This market asks whether that threshold is crossed by January 31, 2026.
Update 2026-01-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close on January 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET (11:59 PM GMT/UTC).
Update 2029-01-29 (PST): Resolution will be based on: Official announcements by the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. government press releases, or widely reported confirmations by multiple major international news organizations.
1,000People are also trading
Similar market which extends the dates through the weekend
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaTindall/first-us-strike-on-iran-on?r=Sm9zaHVhVGluZGFsbA
@ac I think that if they strike Iran shortly after midnight, you should resolve to 0.50 - the % of February 1st that has elapsed.
@Chumchulum whilst that's a creative way of softening deadlines, the creator already clarified midnight UTC is the relevant cutoff, and it would be quite bad to change that now.
@Chumchulum The market close time is already clearly specified, so I’ll hold to that cutoff for resolution.
@Chumchulum isn't this off by 24 hours anyway? It seems to say the market resolves at the start of Jan 31st, not the end
@JoshuaTindall Per the 2026-01-23 update, this market closes at 6:59 PM ET on Jan 30 (11:59 PM UTC), so it covers events up to the end of Jan 30, not through Jan 31.
@ac I've made a similar market which extends through the weekend https://manifold.markets/JoshuaTindall/first-us-strike-on-iran-on?r=Sm9zaHVhVGluZGFsbA
Trump on Truth Social 1/28/26: "A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary. Hopefully Iran will quickly “Come to the Table” and negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
Observation: Today the Pentagon Pizza Index (https://www.pizzint.watch/) reached DOUGHCON 3 (Increase in Force Readiness), which is defined as multiple pizza places in the U.S. Pentagon area showing unusually high activity at the same time, particularly late at night, over multiple days.
(please decide for yourself whether this means anything at all or absolutely nothing).
From Axios 1/26/26: Exclusive: Trump says Iran wants a deal as U.S. "armada" arrives ("President Trump told Axios in an interview on Monday that the situation with Iran is "in flux" because he sent a "big armada" to the region but thinks Tehran genuinely wants to cut a deal.")
From Fox News on 1/26/26: USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier Strike Group makes move amid threat from Iran
From CNN on 1/26/26: US carrier strike group is now in the Middle East region, sources say
This market closes as a peculiar time @ajc is that on purpose? What exact date and time (including time zone) qualifies as the end?
From The Guardian on 1/23/26: Trump says US 'armada' heading to Middle East as Iran death toll put above 5,000
From Axios 1/18/26: "The order never came": Behind the scenes of Trump's Iran pullback ("This account of Trump's decision-making over the past ten days is based on interviews with four U.S. officials, two Israeli officials and two other sources with knowledge of the behind-the-scenes discussions."
Idk why people are pulling out while the US is bringing into the area more stuff, guess we'll see.
I think it's too early to decisively say no