Will First Light Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
ahalekelly avatar
Adrian
7
closes 2025
8%
chance

Scientific breakeven, Q = 1

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will any fusion reactor demonstrate >2:1 energy efficiency by the end of 2023?
TonyJackson avatarTony Jackson
37% chance
Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023?
JamesBills avatarJames Bills
55% chance
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?
LeoGao avatarLeo Gao
85% chance
Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
69% chance
Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac King
31% chance
Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
CharlesCarriere avatarCharles Carriere
52% chance
When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
Meta_C avatarMeta C
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion before 2024?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
8% chance
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
JamesBills avatarJames Bills
35% chance
What will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
JonathanRay avatarJonathan Ray
When will fusion power become viable?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
2042
Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?
dreev avatarDaniel Reeves
65% chance
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version)
LeoGao avatarLeo Gao
73% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?
mistersplice avatarmistersplice
32% chance
Will anyone deliver 1MW of fusion-generated net electricity to anyone before 3000?
JonathanRay avatarJonathan Ray
70% chance
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
LeoGao avatarLeo Gao
55% chance
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026?
NcyRocks avatarN.C. Young
17% chance
In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
BoltonBailey avatarBolton Bailey
Will Zap Energy demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
ahalekelly avatarAdrian
32% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045?
mistersplice avatarmistersplice
56% chance
2 Comments
5 Positions
12 Trades
Sort by:
BairAiushin avatar
Bair Aiushinbought Ṁ40 of NO

https://firstlightfusion.com/media/first-light-fusion-signs-agreement-with-uk-atomic-energy-authoritygratulates-nif-on-its-maiden-gain-result-2
Construction is anticipated to begin in 2024 with operations likely to commence in 2027.

ahalekelly avatar
Adrian

First Light has received about $107 million in funding and they just raised a series C. They were founded in 2011.

The University of Oxford spin-off called First Light Fusion claimed in 2020 it would demonstrate breakeven in 2024. Breakeven has slipped to 2025-2026.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/04/first-light-fusion.html