I probably should have asked this question beforehand, but do you have resolution criteria for this? Does this require economic breakeven (ie the supplier is making money) or is it okay for them to make a loss selling power from a single power plant at engineering breakeven?

https://manifold.markets/mistersplice/will-fusion-power-be-commercially-a-cc8ec42f1ed5?r=bWlzdGVyc3BsaWNl

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045?

51% chance.

https://manifold.markets/mistersplice/will-fusion-power-be-commercially-a-ec3e187aedb2?r=bWlzdGVyc3BsaWNl

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?

62% chance.

In that time frame you're pretty much betting on Helion. I don't think there are any other commercial projects that have done the capital investment already that they'd likely be able to prove out in that window. I doubt I'd put Helion's odds over 20% . . . I confess, I'm actually pretty skeptical of them, honestly, so maybe more like 5-8%.

@AndrewHartman what year would guess it will happen?