If it is announced before the end of 2023 that a majority of Chinese chip companies will be blocked from making leading-edge chips at TSMC, will China invade Taiwan before the end of 2025?
Resolves N/A if the following market resolves No (at the end of 2023):
Counterfactual market:
Mar 8, 9:42pm: If China is blocked from buying chips from TSMC, will they invade Taiwan before the end of 2025? → China has been blocked from buying supercomputer chips from TSMC. Will they invade Taiwan before the end of 2025?
The reason they will invade Taiwan is NOT for TSMC. It will be to eliminate the only legitimate political threat to the CCP, which is and always has been the government in Taiwan. Destroying the technology infrastructure of Taiwan will hurt the west, probably not as much as it hurts them, but still won't be a win for anybody.
