Why did the market jump in mid July?

@TiagoChamba Idk for sure but approval rates consistently climbing as it shows the promised results.

@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir What promised results? (Btw, his approval rate was 61% in december when he got elected and is 49% now.)

@Milanesa Inflation, RIPTE, exports, industry output and so on, recently he achieved 2.7% MoM inflation, his election approval of course will take a while to match.

@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir RIPTE? Wages are super low and haven’t recovered from Milei's major devaluation, specially informal jobs. Exports? Argentina's biggest export (agriculture) went up, but it's a distortion on the data, caused by the historic drought of the previous year. Industry output? It’s at historic lows levels, with a deep recession and critically low consumption. Heck, is comparable or even worse than during COVID. The economy hit rock bottom months ago and still isn’t showing a consistent recovery. Are we talking about the same country?

But yeah, inflation is going down, and that’s the only thing keeping Milei's approval rating from collapsing. But to keep inflation down, the dollar is at an artificially low price, sustained by the central bank reserves intervening in the currency market. That's delaying the opening of the exchange rate restrictions (you need dollar reserves to open them up). Also, with this we have yet another carry trade scheme, just like under Macri (2015-2019). That time it all ended in a major devaluation and inflation spike.

@Milanesa Not sure where you are getting your data from but if you are talking about achieving the levels right before his election in all departments, it will not happen any time soon, but afaik all metrics are consistently crawling towards improvement.

@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir You mentioned Milei showing promised results in inflation, wages, exports and industry output. But only inflation is improving (after a big spike when he devaluated the peso 54% in December) while the rest collapsed tremendously to almost historic lows and are showing very slow and inconsistent recoveries at best.

-

Wages - Official data was released by INDEC (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos) just yesterday: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-4-31-61

You can read this news report from today for more context about why wages are not recovering (in Spanish): https://tn.com.ar/economia/2024/11/13/la-inflacion-baja-pero-los-salarios-no-repuntan-los-motivos-que-explican-la-caida-de-los-ingresos-familiares

- "Since the third quarter of 2023, there has been a phenomenal liquefaction of real labor income of total jobs: they fell 12% between then and the second quarter of 2024". "If we observe the recovery of public and informal wages, we can see that it is very tenuous or even stagnant. For example, in the public sector, wages have been flat for several months." "As of September, they are 16% below November last year."

-

Industry and Economic activity - the best official data is the Estimador mensual de actividad económica (EMAE) by INDEC. Here is the last one, from the end of October: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-9-48

- "In August 2024, the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) decreased 3.8% with respect to the same month of 2023. The seasonally adjusted indicator increased 0.2%, while the trend-cycle indicator registered a decrease of 0.2%, both with respect to the previous month". Basically, Argentina's economy is 3.8% worse than before Milei, and is only 0.2% better than the previous month, showing a stagnation, and not a clear recovery.

-

Exports - Official Comercio exterior data: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel3-Tema-3-2

- The current account is positive, but that's because there was a big drop in imports caused by the recession and the extreme Milei's devaluation. Exports are growing compared to last year because last year there was a very big drought that severely decreased exports of agricultural products. Sadly, all this surplus is calculated to be lost in the next months: due to the extremely low price of the dollar, Argentine tourists will spend their summer vacations abroad instead of within the country, reducing the Central Bank dollars reserves (and with serious damage to the national tourism industry).

-

Where are you getting your data from? I'm not asking in a bad way, I'm just curious because it's quite different from what I see from official data, economists, etc. Heck, even the wages news report I linked is from a right-wing TV channel (TN, from Grupo Clarin), famous to spin everything in a good light for neoliberal governments. So, things not showing a consistent recovery it's quite a consensus among economists.

@Milanesa, we are looking at the same data, yes it collapsed, and will stay collapsed for a long time until the private sector picks up the slack, sure, the healthy improvements so far have been slow but are happening and will not surpass the debt fueled status of the previous government perhaps for years, but i realize that theoretical improvements might not actually raise his approval levels, perhaps you are right it wouldn't sway Argentine citizens if the situation at the end of the day still still considerably worse than before.

@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir Just an aclaration to add more context, but the "debt fueled status of the previous governemnt" was from debt actually taken in 2018 by Macri and Caputo. It was the biggest loan in IMF's history and condemned Argentina to the IMF austherity policies for decades to come (same than in the 70's and 80's with the genocidal dictatorships): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/26/argentina-imf-biggest-loan

The payment of the interests from that debt were of course a big problem for the previous government. Specially if you add the drought that limited exports. The funny thing is that the same Caputo that took that debt, sustaining a bubble of carry trade and financial speculation that ended up collapsing in 2019, is now the Economy Minister under Milei, and wants desperately to keep taking even more debt to keep doing the same.

@Milanesa Iirc he need the IMF loan to remove the currency controls, not because he wants to fuel more spending.

@Guilhermesampaiodeoliveir You're confusing debt with public spending.