Will I take a ride in a self-driving car in 2022?
20
10
Ṁ737Ṁ164
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
I live in Bay Area, worked at Google for a while, am quite willing to try out alpha/beta software. I would be interested in the community's estimate to the probability that I'll be able to take a ride in a self-driving car this year.
I wonder about this because I'd like to have some quantitative estimate of "when should I expect self-driving cars to be a thing available to me". Ideally I'd like to have them as easy to use and as available as e.g. Uber/Lyft, but that sort of criteria would be harder to put into an objective question.
This market resolves to YES if I take a ride in a self-driving car in 2022 - either in Bay Area or elsewhere, no matter whether I order it or someone else does. Obviously, has to be a car, and ride the whole ride without a human operating it.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ28 | |
| 2 | Ṁ27 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Sort by:
@IlaycaKalkandelen yeah this is basically a question of "will I get access to one of the beta tester programs in SF / will one of them become open to general public"
Related questions
Will a major city in Europe have a generally available self-driving taxi or rideshare service by 2026?
54% chance
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
58% chance
Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2024?
15% chance
Will there be self driving taxis in London before the end of 2025?
22% chance
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
27% chance
Which car brands will start selling self-driving cars in 2024?
Will any Waymo driverless vehicle be involved in a serious accident in 2024?
55% chance
Will there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
17% chance
Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]
30% chance