Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

1kṀ1474

2029

42%

chance

ALL

I'd love to have a car where I'm able to program in a destination that's a few hundred miles away and let my car drive itself there while I work on my laptop, read a book, or go to sleep.

In order for this to occur, self-driving technology needs to get to the point where I actually trust it to not kill me without supervision. (i.e. level 4 autonomy.) If it's able to safely handle highway driving but not city driving, that's ok; highway driving is what takes the majority of the trip time, and I can take over once we get into the city.

It also needs to be cheap enough that I believe it to be worth it. I live in a rural area, but I work remotely, so I don't travel that much. At present I'd only consider a purchase at <$40k. I'd also accept the ability to rent one, which I think would start to be worth it for me at around $300 a day or below, assuming it's able to drive itself out to my house.

I do drive in the snow/rain/night a fair amount, so if it can't handle those, that would reduce the amount it's worth to me.

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.

Market context

Tesla

Self-Driving Vehicles

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Update: My work and hobbies have changed a fair bit recently, which means I travel much less, but have more money. I think these mostly cancel out such that I still value a self-driving car about the same.

@creator Where are you located, approximately?

@Prin Mid British Columbia.

How will this resolve if renting such a car is definitely possible in your budget, yet too expensive for you to choose on a regular basis? I ask because Waymo seems to currently be in this phase. People can afford to try it, but most people will stick with cheaper options for now.

@CommanderZander Needs to be cheap enough that it's worth the few hours of time it saves me.

if a self driving taxi service becomes popular and you use it as a main form of transportation but don’t own a self driving car, how does this question resolve?

@TomCohen Good question. That'll count if it's cheap enough to be better than non-self-driving alternatives.

@IsaacKing Hmm, now I'm curious about the economics of long-distance trips by self-driving taxi.

Most taxi drivers don't want to take long-distance trips because they will need to get back home! A self-driving car might not care, as long as it knows it can get business in the new destination. So I imagine long-distance trips between large markets (SF - LA - NYC, Sydney-Melbourne etc.) will be cheaper than long-distance trips to less frequented destinations -- but the price factor will be at worst 2:1 (in the worst case you just pay the car to go back where it came from).

@Boklam I guess another plausible option is a partly-self-driving rental: It can drive along highways and park itself at a stop just off the highway (rest stop? purpose-built highway-side taxi stand?); you meet it there and pick it up.