Will Israel hand over Hamas-free parts of Gaza to Trump's ISF?
1
100Ṁ25
2027
39%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel formally transfers administrative or security control of any part of the Gaza Strip, which Israel declares as "Hamas-free" or "terror-free," to the International Stabilization Force (ISF) as detailed in US President Donald Trump's September 2025 peace plan. This handover must be publicly confirmed by official statements from the Israeli government and/or the United States government, specifying the transfer of control to the ISF.

The market will resolve to "No" if, by the resolution date, no such formal handover of a "Hamas-free" or "terror-free" part of Gaza to the ISF has been publicly confirmed by these official sources.

Background

In late September 2025, US President Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point peace plan aimed at ending the Gaza War. A key component of this proposal is the establishment of an "International Stabilization Force" (ISF), a multinational security deployment intended to provide security, train a new Palestinian police force, and oversee the demilitarization and redevelopment of the Gaza Strip. The ISF's primary goal is to create a secure, demilitarized, and "terror-free" Gaza, facilitating a staged withdrawal of Israeli armed forces.

On October 8, 2025, President Trump announced that Israeli and Palestinian negotiators had agreed to accept the first phase of this peace plan, which came into effect on October 10, 2025. The plan stipulates that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will progressively hand over territory it occupies in Gaza to the ISF, based on agreed-upon standards and timeframes linked to demilitarization. If Hamas delays or rejects aspects of the proposal, the plan allows for the transfer of "terror-free areas" from the IDF to the ISF to proceed. The ISF is envisioned to comprise Arab and international partners, including Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.

Considerations

While Israeli and Palestinian negotiators have reportedly agreed to the first phase of the Trump peace plan, Hamas has indicated objections to certain aspects, particularly calls for its full disarmament and exclusion from governance. Hamas has reportedly placed its own police on the streets, challenging the proposed international security force's role. The exact character and composition of the ISF remain somewhat unclear. Furthermore, the plan includes a temporary transitional governance structure led by a technocratic Palestinian committee, overseen by a "Board of Peace" chaired by Mr. Trump, which has yet to be formally established. The phased Israeli withdrawal is contingent on verified demilitarization, which could lead to potential delays in the transfer of control.

Author's comment:

It would be strategic for Israel to stick to Trump's 20 point plan, as it has a clause in case Hamas rejects it, and it gives Israel legitimacy to continue it's war against Hamas in not demilitarized/terrorist free areas, including sponsorship by the Arab world.

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