When will Manifold run out of money?
16
146
1k
2025
9%
In 2024
9%
Jan-Mar 2025
10%
Apr-Jun 2025
10%
Jul-Sep 2025
7%
Oct-Dec 2025
55%
Not before 2026

As of April 3rd, 2024, the company running Manifold has about 1 year of runway left before it needs to raise more money or become profitable.

I will judge whether they have run out of money primarily by the occurrence of drastic cuts in the number or salaries of founder & non-founder employees and contractors.

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bought Ṁ10 Not before 2026 YES

Never if they keep collecting mana

sold Ṁ20 Not before 2026 YES

@KeenenW Curious what that means

@Bayesian Couple days ago Jskf told James his reclaim-mana script stole most of mirrorbot's balance. James clarified it's suppose to only take from inactive users. People asked why he was taking mana from anyone to begin with and James said he would explain in the Update channel soon.

okay, but why would collecting mana from inactive users change whether they run out of money

@Bayesian Because it was set aggressively and taking mana from active accounts. Seems like if you had a bank/mule account and it did stuff like send mana or make markets but didn't make enough bets it might have gotten hit. I was memeing that if they keep taking mana from active accounts people will have to buy more from Manifold