When will Manifold have a Wikipedia article?
resolved Feb 22
January–April 2024
October 2023
November 2023
December 2023
May–December 2024

Resolves when Manifold has an article in the English Wikipedia that either

  1. is not nominated for deletion within one week of its creation,

  2. or is kept (not deleted) after an Articles for Deletion discussion.


  • Only resolves for a Wikipedia article, not drafts, redirects, etc.

  • If a deletion review request is listed within one week of the deletion of the article, the market will resolve if the article is undeleted or if the article is relisted and then kept in a new discussion at AfD.

  • The market will resolve to the option that corresponds to the date of the creation of the article in UTC. For example, if the article is created at 23:00 on 31 October 2023 and is not nominated for deletion before 23:00 on 14 November 2023, the market will resolve to October 2023.

  • After a deletion discussion, the Wikipedia article on Manifold was draftified. The current draft can be found here.

This market was inspired by a series of markets by @egroj on Manifold's Wikipedia page.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
January–April 2024
bought Ṁ1,111 January–April 2024 YES
bought Ṁ10 2025 YES

@shankypanky Doesn't it have to not get deleted for a week?

bought Ṁ700 January–April 2024 YES

@Joshua overly enthusiastic - I'll be back in a week

bought Ṁ4,000 January–April 2024 YES

@shankypanky It was moved to main on February 13th, so it's been a week now

bought Ṁ3,000 January–April 2024 YES

@kpprd true

@adk can you please resolve?

bought Ṁ30 May–December 2024 YES
May–December 2024

500 M limit on YES

bought Ṁ3 of January–April 2024 YES

Someone needs to make a market that gets us widespread news coverage for this to happen. Perhaps we correctly predict the 2024 Super Bowl winner/score?

bought Ṁ12 of December 2023 YES

I took a good chunk of it, but there's still arbitrage here. The 2023 options should add up to the linked market for 2023. Right now 7 + 19 + 25 < 69.

There we go, that's looking better, good job @c0m

bought Ṁ10 of May–December 2024 YES

@robm total 2023 is currently at 52% vs the other market’s 68%

@adk down to 43% here vs 68% there

bought Ṁ10 of December 2023 YES

@adk Really strange considering that this question has more relaxed resolution criteria. I’m happy to be net long 2023 as well, since it only takes a lazy journalist wanting some outrage bait to give another reliable source, and I think that coupled with the NYT piece and trivial mentions should be enough to tip the scales.

Wonder if I should send the when will the King die market to Telegraph journalists to speed up the process…

bought Ṁ2 of 2025 YES

updated description to fix a typo (“on 23:00” to “at 23:00”)

sold Ṁ55 of December 2023 YES

updated description to link to the actual draft page (previously it was linked to the draft's talk page)