Resolves when Manifold has an article in the English Wikipedia that either
is not nominated for deletion within one week of its creation,
or is kept (not deleted) after an Articles for Deletion discussion.
Notes:
Only resolves for a Wikipedia article, not drafts, redirects, etc.
If a deletion review request is listed within one week of the deletion of the article, the market will resolve if the article is undeleted or if the article is relisted and then kept in a new discussion at AfD.
The market will resolve to the option that corresponds to the date of the creation of the article in UTC. For example, if the article is created at 23:00 on 31 October 2023 and is not nominated for deletion before 23:00 on 14 November 2023, the market will resolve to October 2023.
After a deletion discussion, the Wikipedia article on Manifold was draftified. The current draft can be found here.
This market was inspired by a series of markets by @egroj on Manifold's Wikipedia page.
1,000
3.00
@adk Really strange considering that this question has more relaxed resolution criteria. I’m happy to be net long 2023 as well, since it only takes a lazy journalist wanting some outrage bait to give another reliable source, and I think that coupled with the NYT piece and trivial mentions should be enough to tip the scales.
Wonder if I should send the when will the King die market to Telegraph journalists to speed up the process…