Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?

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2030

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I saw this tweet by Pedro Domingos and thought to myself, "one of those things is an implicit prediction."

Update 2025-04-03 (PST) Baseline Valuations for 2023:
- Anthropic: An accepted valuation of $18.4 billion from its December 2023 fundraising round.
- OpenAI: An accepted valuation of $80 billion from its secondary sale initiated in October 2023 (accepted in February 2024).

These values will be used as the 2023 benchmarks for resolving the market.

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OpenAI

Anthropic

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@AmitAmin want to commit to specific prices? we now know eoy23 valuations for both

@sophiawisdom Anthropic sought to raise with a valuation of $18.4 billion in December 2023, which was accepted when the round closed a few weeks later. So $18.4 billion for Anthropic.

OpenAI sought a secondary sale with a valuation of $80 billion in October of 2023, which was accepted February 2024. So $80 billion for OpenAI.

Before I lock in these numbers, does anyone have better numbers they think I should use?

Not quite sure I understand what this is asking. Does this resolve to YES if either OpenAI or Anthropic ever has a lower valuation between now and the end of 2030 than it did at the end of 2023?

@rogs Yes, that's correct. I'll look for the most credible valuation for both at the end of 2023. For example, let's say $80 billion for OpenAI and $18.4 billion for Anthropic. If at any time either company has a credible valuation that drops below that, I'll resolve YES.