Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?
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2030
63%
chance

I saw this tweet by Pedro Domingos and thought to myself, "one of those things is an implicit prediction."

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Not quite sure I understand what this is asking. Does this resolve to YES if either OpenAI or Anthropic ever has a lower valuation between now and the end of 2030 than it did at the end of 2023?

@rogs Yes, that's correct. I'll look for the most credible valuation for both at the end of 2023. For example, let's say $80 billion for OpenAI and $18.4 billion for Anthropic. If at any time either company has a credible valuation that drops below that, I'll resolve YES.

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