If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
17
1kṀ1427
2030
53%
chance

Conditional on AI wiping out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational? This market is meant to tease apart the components of other AI ex-risk markets, disambiguating AI ex-risk and Platform risk.

This market will resolve yes if humanity is wiped out by 2030 AND Manifold is still around. It will resolve No if humanity is wiped out by 2030 AND Manifold is NOT around. It will resolve N/A if humanity is NOT wiped out by AI by 2030.

I think the fair value of the "Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030?" market should essentially be the product of: P(AI wipes out humanity by 2030), P(Manifold still around | AI wipes out humanity) , and maybe a discount factor for the bettor not being able to collect even if Manifold is around. The second probability is this market.

This is meant as a companion to

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8?r=QWFzaGlxRGhlZXJhajc3ZWI

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