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MANIFOLD
Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?
12
Ṁ239Ṁ297
resolved May 17
Resolved as
50%

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine achieves a net territorial gain in the week ending 16 May.

This market will resolve NO if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine does not achieve a net territorial gain in the week ending 16 May.

This market will otherwise resolve 50% YES and 50% NO.

Resolution sources

The resolution sources are:

Clarifications

DeepStateUA's estimate will be obtained by comparing its most recent update as of 23:59 EEST on 16 May with its update at 23:43 EEST on 9 May. Ukraine's net territorial change will be inferred from changes to the area controlled by Russia and the area controlled by neither side.

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Market context
World
Wars
Russia
Ukraine-Russia war
Ukraine
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Ukraine suffered a net loss of 6.71km² according to Poulet volant:

But per DeepState, the area controlled by Russia decreased by 3km² while grey zone decreased by 7km², meaning Ukraine had a net gain of ~10km²:

Pursuant to the resolution criteria, the market resolves 50-50.

Next week's market is here:

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