Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, the One Nation party (officially named 'Pauline Hanson's One Nation') records a primary vote share of at least 20% in at least one federal voting intention poll conducted by Resolve, Essential, Pyxis (Newspoll), YouGov, Roy Morgan or DemosAU.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Close date

This market is set to close at 14:00:00 UTC on 30 June 2026.

Clarifications

This market concerns One Nation's support in Australia as a whole. Polling 20% in a certain region or demographic will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.

I will not trade in this market.