Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Labour leads (ties don't count) any national opinion poll (either UK-wide or GB-specific) for UK general election voting intention by 31 December 2026. The poll must be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) or equivalent reputable polling organization. Resolution will be determined by checking publicly available polling data from sources such as Wikipedia's opinion polling tracker or Politico poll of polls.

Labour's average line on Politico is starting to swing upwards, and Keir Starmer insists that this year Brits will "feel hope again" as the government's changes start to impact people -- maybe that'll make opinion more positive -- or maybe labour will replace him with someone much more popular and that'll do it.