Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Elon Musk disables the Ukrainian government's access to Starlink for more than 30 consecutive days without its consent.

This market will otherwise resolve NO at the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Presumptions

For the purpose of this market, it will be presumed that:

• SpaceX is responsible for any restrictions to Ukraine's access to Starlink (excluding Starshield)

• Elon Musk is responsible for the actions of SpaceX for as long as he remains CEO of SpaceX

These presumptions may be rebutted if there is evidence to the contrary.

Clarifications

The following are not sufficient to trigger a YES resolution:

• restrictions that merely enforce Starlink's existing terms of service

• restrictions that only affect modified Starlink products

• restrictions to Starshield only

• geographical limitations

For the purpose of this market, the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be triggered by an armistice, peace treaty or surrender, but not a ceasefire. The close date may be extended as necessary.