Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Elon Musk physically enters Russian territory at any point during 2026. This includes any Russian city, region, or territory (with the exclusion of ceded/contested Ukrainian territory). Resolution will be based on credible

Background

Musk has allegedly been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since 2022, though the Kremlin has denied frequent communications, claiming only one telephone call occurred. Putin's international cooperation envoy has expressed interest in teaming up with Musk, saying discussions could take place "in the near future", with proposals involving space cooperation and Mars missions. Musk's father stated he would recommend his son visit Russia, calling Moscow "an amazing place", and attended a pro-Kremlin forum in Moscow in June 2025.

Considerations

Russian officials have stated they would be prepared to offer Musk political asylum if needed, though one official suggested Musk is "playing a completely different game" and wouldn't require it. Given Musk's role as a major U.S. government contractor through SpaceX and his reported communications with Putin, any visit would likely generate significant geopolitical scrutiny and media attention.