Resolution criteria
An option will resolve YES if, at any time before the stated deadline, the Russian Armed Forces are known to control the entire area bordered by the E50, T0504 and T0515 highways in the city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast (also known as Krasnoarmeysk).
Each option will otherwise resolve NO once the deadline passes.
Any YES resolution must be supported by at least three of the following four sources:
This requirement may only be amended if one of the sources ceases to update regularly, and it may only be waived in exceptional circumstances where Russian control of the area is beyond doubt.
Interpretation principles
The resolution criteria will be interpreted in accordance with their apparent meaning, without regard to any intention of the market creator that is not evident in the text.
No clause, sentence or word in the resolution criteria will be considered superfluous, void or insignificant if by any other interpretation they may all be made useful and pertinent.
Clarifications
I will not trade in this market.
The precise deadline for each option is 21:00:00 UTC on the final day of the stated month.
The area described in the resolution criteria is shaded red in the map below:
1,000The November deadline resolves NO as Liveuamap and DeepState do not show the relevant area as being entirely under Russian control. The 3/4 sources requirement can be waived in "exceptional circumstances where Russian control of the area is beyond doubt" but I have decided that this is not applicable. For a full explanation, see my comment below.
Hi traders, I just want to explain why the remaining options haven't resolved YES yet.
As you know, a YES resolution must be supported by three of LostArmour, Liveuamap, Rybar and DeepState. (In hindsight, this requirement may have been overly strict, especially when combined with the 'entire area' requirement, but it is the rule.)
LostArmour has shown the relevant area as being entirely under Russian control since 11 November. (The dashed line represents Russian control on 11 November, the solid line is today.)
From 18 November to 25 November, Liveuamap showed the relevant area as fully under Russian control. So, during that period of time, we had two sources supporting a YES resolution. Today, however, Liveuamap says Russia has lost control of the north-western corner.
As stated in the description, I'm using Rybar's static maps rather than its (paywalled) interactive one. Rybar maps dated 17 November, 20 November, 23 November and 25 November showed most or almost all of the relevant area under Russian control, but a tiny pocket in the north-east of the area is still classified as a combat zone.
Meanwhile, DeepState has been... cautious, to say the least. As recently as 20 November, it showed only a thin sliver of the area under Russian control, and even now, most of it is still grey.
In summary, I was a few Rybar pixels away from resolving YES circa 20 November, but we have only ever had 2/4 sources supporting a YES resolution and, as I write this, it is down to 1/4.
I apologise to anyone who feels that the market was poorly designed, but the resolution criteria are quite clear and I am obviously going to follow them.