MANIFOLD
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2
Ṁ275Ṁ1k
2029
2.77 points
expected
16%
0.0 - 1.0
23%
1.0 - 2.0
26%
2.0 - 3.0
12%
3.0 - 4.0
10%
4.0 - 5.0
6%
5.0 - 6.0
1.8%
6.0 - 7.0
1.8%
7.0 - 8.0
1.8%
8.0 - 9.0
1%
9.0 - 10.0

Resolves at the sum of the Democracy Index of the countries that occupy the territory that Russia occupied before the Russian invasion in 2022 (including Crimea), weighted by the population living in that territory.

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