If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2
Ṁ275Ṁ1k2029
2.77 points
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
16%
0.0 - 1.0
23%
1.0 - 2.0
26%
2.0 - 3.0
12%
3.0 - 4.0
10%
4.0 - 5.0
6%
5.0 - 6.0
1.8%
6.0 - 7.0
1.8%
7.0 - 8.0
1.8%
8.0 - 9.0
1%
9.0 - 10.0
Resolves at the sum of the Democracy Index of the countries that occupy the territory that Russia occupied before the Russian invasion in 2022 (including Crimea), weighted by the population living in that territory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?
2.69
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.44
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.67
Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2025?
78% chance
What will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?
2.1
If Vladimir Putin is not in power in Russia, what will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?
3.5
What will the Economist Democracy Index of Syria be in 2025?
2.46
Will the majority of Russians cease to support "the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine" in 2026?
8% chance
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
45% chance
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?
38% chance