Welcome to the Double Chance Saloon… in this market, each option is composed of two legs. An option will resolve YES if at least one leg succeeds or NO if both legs fail.

Resolutions in this market will be informed solely by existing markets run by other users. I will not overrule them under any circumstances.

Active options

In 2025: [China launches full-scale invasion of Taiwan] or [war declared between India and Pakistan]

This option will resolve YES if /ian/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas-Q6dqCtL2U6 resolves YES or /Sebastianus/will-india-and-pakistan-go-to-war-i resolves YES. It will resolve NO if both markets resolve NO.

In 2025: [Mamdani named Time’s Person of the Year] or [Kirk named Time’s Person of the Year]

This option will resolve YES if /Joshua/2025-times-person-of-the-year-conso resolves "Zohran Mamdani" YES or "Charlie Kirk" YES. It will resolve NO if both resolve NO.

In 2025: [Altman named Time’s Person of the Year] or [Huang named Time’s Person of the Year]

This option will resolve YES if /Joshua/2025-times-person-of-the-year-conso resolves "Sam Altman" YES or "Jensen Huang" YES. It will resolve NO if both resolve NO.

In 2025: [US soldiers deployed to Iran] or [US military operation in Mexico]

This option will resolve YES if /Gabrielle/will-there-be-american-soldiers-in resolves YES or /EvanDaniel/will-the-us-conduct-military-operat resolves YES. It will resolve NO if both markets resolve NO.

[Mamdani named Time’s 2025 Person of the Year] or [Ocasio-Cortez wins 2028 US presidential election]

This option will resolve YES if /Joshua/2025-times-person-of-the-year-conso resolves "Zohran Mamdani" YES or /ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj resolves "AOC" YES. It will resolve NO if both resolve NO.

By end of 2026: [Macron ceases to be president of France] or [Xi Jinping ceases to be leader of China]

This option will resolve YES if /MetaculusBot/will-emmanuel-macron-cease-being-pr resolves YES or /cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas resolves YES. It will resolve NO if both markets resolve NO.

In 2028: [Newsom wins US presidential election] or [Ocasio-Cortez wins US presidential election]

This option will resolve YES if /ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj resolves "Gavin Newsom" YES or "AOC" YES. It will resolve NO if both resolve NO.

Clarifications

Resolutions by other users must stand for 24 hours before I follow them.

As resolutions in this market are not based on my own judgement, I will trade in this market.