Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
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194
1k
2025
84%
chance

I will use my subjective judgement for resolving whether it is as good as GPT-4, but benchmark results will play a part in shaping that judgement. The rest will be qualitative measurement.

Whether something is "open source" is defined liberally here and also will be determined by my subjective judgement, but generally I will deem something open source if (a) anyone can access it and (b) it wasn't the result of an unintentional leak/exfiltration, regardless of the precisions of the license.

I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.

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