I will use my subjective judgement for resolving whether it is as good as GPT-4, but benchmark results will play a part in shaping that judgement. The rest will be qualitative measurement.
Whether something is "open source" is defined liberally here and also will be determined by my subjective judgement, but generally I will deem something open source if (a) anyone can access it and (b) it wasn't the result of an unintentional leak/exfiltration, regardless of the precisions of the license.
I will not personally be trading on this market because it relies on my subjective judgement.
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@mods The account of the market creator is deleted. Resolves as YES. DeepSeek 3 is open source and much better than GPT-4 (latest version GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09) ever was, see e.g. ELO 1315 vs 1245 in https://lmarena.ai:
and even compares favorably to GPT-4o, which did not exist at the time this market was created, see https://x.com/deepseek_ai/status/1872242657348710721
also https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3/blob/main/DeepSeek_V3.pdf
@jacksonpolack I agree with @ChaosIsALadder. Even LLama 3 beats the April 9th version of GPT-4-Turbo on llmarena. I can't imagine a better benchmark for "subjective judgement".