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Will we have an open-source model that is equivalent GPT-4 by end of 2025?

11

closes 2026

82%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Similar to /LoganZoellner/will-we-have-a-foss-equivalent-of-g

With this much excitement and energy in the LLM space, I am fairly confident in this prediction: Before the end of this year, there will be an open source model that is equivalent in quality to **#GPT4**

Resolves positive if a FOSS model (no signup required to download) is pubically available by 12/31/26 that outperforms GPT-4 on at least 50% of the tests listed in this article (**https://www.semafor.com/article/03/15/2023/how-gpt-4-performed-in-academic-exams**)

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## Related markets

Before the end of 2023 there will be an open source model that is equivalent in quality to #GPT4 (Richard Socher)19%

Will OpenAI opensource a 12B parameter model by the end of 2023 with performance matching the original GPT-3?51%

Will we train GPT-4 to generate resolution criteria better than the creator 50% of the time by the end of 2023?27%

## Related markets

Before the end of 2023 there will be an open source model that is equivalent in quality to #GPT4 (Richard Socher)19%

Will OpenAI opensource a 12B parameter model by the end of 2023 with performance matching the original GPT-3?51%

Will we train GPT-4 to generate resolution criteria better than the creator 50% of the time by the end of 2023?27%