Basically, who amongst these will be LESS active on manifold this month?

Market for January 2024 for the top 40 MOST active users on Manifold from December 2023:

Which of these users will spend less time on Manifold in January 2024?

Full results for December here:

This is all of December in UTC-7, which is the timezone leagues seasons start on, although leagues hasn't ended quite yet (so don't take this as definitive of the results for similar markets about leagues! Just very close in all likelihood):

https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/af076d2b9eae9bf28f84864ba67735f3

@chrisjbillington I was so scared to open it—and for good reason, it turns out. 🫠 Thanks for making this!

@chrisjbillington oh boy 🫠

@chrisjbillington Someone destroy my account please.

@NicoDelon 🫂

Related poll:

@chrisjbillington maybe I need to change my vote from No to YES 😂

@SirCryptomind addicted to, or enthusiastic about? 🙃

@shankypanky Both 🤣

@firstuserhere the following users can resolve NO:

@Mira

@Agh

@firstuserhere

@Lion

@Shump

@jacksonpolack

@TheBayesian

@deagol

this can definitely resolve

@TheBayesian i suspect mine too, probably long ago (i don’t have the hard data), but it’s somehow still outstanding despite others resolving.

Where am i?

@firstuserhere:

@Joshua, @SirCryptomind, @chrisjbillington, @NicoDelon, and @mattyb can resolve NO.

@chrisjbillington does this mean i’ve already filled 15% of buckets in the first 19days?

@mattyb Correct.

@chrisjbillington the shame bucket for me ☹️

@mattyb 🫂

@shankypanky it’s mostly me realizing that i bought something dumb and selling my position 5 mins later

@mattyb better strategy than my time here which is to buy something dumb but somehow get too attached to sell it off so just hold on hoping it somehow becomes smart

(why am I like this?)

@shankypanky i’ve done that twice this month now, losing 700 and 800 mana in each. Now I’ve got no confidence in my positions haha

@mattyb I could lose my ass at the end of the year if Kanye doesn't release his album on the 31st and it's the most unreasonable and stubborn thing I'm doing (in not one but two markets) but I'm letting it ride like a game of chicken

@shankypanky oof, good luck 🤞 the upside is that you look far enough ahead that you’ll likely promote even without a Ye album.

i have relatively few positions set to fire at the EoY. I’ve held a Sudoku 200M NO for a while now, and I trust BTE to make his competitor (I put a bit of hopium into BTE, let’s hope he can deliver).

@mattyb sometimes I wonder if I make bad bets for masochistic reasons because the stress makes me feel alive 😅 starting today I'm counting the 12 days of Kanyemas and hoping for the best lol

I'm on those optimistic BTE vibes too (that's probably not comforting given all the other shit I've said haha) and I'm still hoping the Manifold Apple Podcasts resolution comes through favourably sooner than later 🙃

@shankypanky this app does have you rooting for some awful things/people at times. I remember being upset at the Gaza ceasefire for the briefest of moments because I lost mana.

that podcast one has to resolve YES shortly.

@mattyb after today's events I have vowed not to bet on any more non-debate-related Destiny markets because I can't sit through another stream of him bitching about Melina and answering questions about snorting ADHD meds

@shankypanky as someone that doesn’t follow AI, or ecc/acc, or have a Twitter, I don’t know any of the Manifold celebs haha, and I’m always out of the loop on those markets.

Couldn’t pick Destiny out of a crowd, and someone at Taco Tuesday had to explain who Aella and a bunch of other notable people were.

better strategy than my time here which is to buy something dumb but somehow get too attached to sell it off so just hold on hoping it somehow becomes smart

(why am I like this?)

spoiler alert: confirmed that this isn't, in fact, a good strategy. 📉