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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

32% chance

AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025

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Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026

57% chance

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)

35% chance

Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 that win film festival awards [See link to better qu]

11% chance

Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2026?

85% chance

AI Movies by 2027

71% chance

hollywood-level AI-generated feature film by 2026

10% chance

Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?

10% chance

At the beginning of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

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@mods resolves NO, please resolve

@mods resolves no

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ10 YES

i feel like this is 30% likely this year, depending on how fast SORA 2 is created. i’m not enormously confident though because this is very much lab prio dependent.

predictedNO

@firstuserhere will you accept systems that generate coherent 5-min films by splicing together many brief clips made with particular prompts (e.g., ChatGPT creates those prompts, which together have a reasonable narrative, but the videos themselves are of the type available today)? Or does it need to have normal length shots and scenes?