Singapore is increasing its baby bonus by S$3000 (about USD$2250). Will this substantially increase birth rates (source: https://twitter.com/business/status/1625678541692993536)? (Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-singapores-2024-birth-rate-as)
Market is using 2025 instead of 2024 because of worries that 2024 is the Year of the Dragon, which will distort the results, see here for 2024: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-birth-rate-in-singapore-be
Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait for official statistics before resolving. Creator expects this to resolve NO but will not rush to grade.
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@Ernie Total fertility rate for Singapore in 2023 was, according to quick googling, 1.244 births per woman. So for this to resolve YES we'd need to see a TFR of at least 1.28132 in 2025. Looks like Singapore last hit that in 2006.
I’m worried I’m missing some thing because this seems way too high. Hey swing of 3% seems extremely unlikely in either direction, and it is only been negative recently. I understand they are trying to boost it, but that doesn’t seem like nearly enough money to be a total game changer.
Plus couples on the fence might do it in the Year of the Dragon, pulling forward part of the bump.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SGP/singapore/birth-rate
I think Hungary has a better idea (not that Singapore's policy isn't also welcome, but it's kind of weak and too egalitarian). Now that women are economically empowered, straight/straight-leaning women are either choosing Mr Right, or not finding Mr Right and not having kids. So we need to fund the women who do find Mr Right to have as many kids as possible - not worry about the failed pairings that never were. So Hungary is now giving a 100% lifetime income tax deduction for women who have 4 or more kids. Incredibly based.
@RobinGreen Although, it's also worth arguing that instead of just ignoring the failed pairings that never were, we could do even better. Forming a state-backed or philanthropic dating app, that doesn't suffer from the perverse incentives of existing dating apps to profit by matching people poorly, leading to unsuccessful dates and relationships and coming back to the app to pay more, might be worthwhile.