Will Singapore's 2024 birth rate, as a percentage of Hong Kong's 2024 birth rate, increase by at least 3% versus the same comparison in 2023?
15
105
Ṁ269Ṁ330
Dec 31
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ1
Ṁ10
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ16 +66%
New probability
61% +1.2%
Singapore will add ~$2250 USD to its baby bonus in 2024. To control for other factors, I am asking the same question as in (https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-birth-rate-in-singapore-be) except relative to Hong Kong, which seems like a reasonable control group.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money