Singapore is increasing its baby bonus by S$3000 (about USD$2250). Will this substantially increase birth rates (source: https://twitter.com/business/status/1625678541692993536)? (Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-singapores-2024-birth-rate-as)
Update 2025-02-01 (PST): - Market closing date extended to June 1. (AI summary of creator comment)
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Seems like births and birth rates have decreased: https://x.com/BirthGauge/status/1888255940849209364/photo/1
@ZviMowshowitz please define birth rate.
Total Live-Births?
Resident Live-Births?
Resident Crude Birth Rate?
Resident Total Fertility Rate?
Something else?
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/search-by-theme/population/births-and-fertility/latest-data
Official data for 2023 was put on this web page by May 10th 2024. I presume updates will be found there too
Note that one confounding factor is 2024 is the year of dragon in the Chinese calendar, which usually see higher birth rate in Chinese societies.
https://www.girugten.nl/how-zodiac-signs-influence-birth-rates-in-asia/
According to the latest figures released yesterday by the Department of Statistics, [in 2012] a total of 38,641 babies were born to families with at least one Singapore citizen or permanent resident parent last year — a figure that boosted the Republic’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to a five-year high of 1.29 last year, compared to 1.2 in 2011.
...
Traditionally, the number of babies born here increases when the Dragon Year comes around. In 2000, TFR increased to 1.6 from 1.47 in 1999 before dropping to 1.41 in 2001. This trend was also observed in 1988 when TFR rose to 1.96 from 1.62 in 1987.
@footgun I had no idea. Do you think this is big enough we need to do 2025 vs. 2023 instead to learn what I want to know?
@DesTiny I have a general rule that I let Austin do the research if needed - I got my historical numbers from World Bank via Google and that source seemed fine.