Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
36
1kṀ5731
2027
5%
chance

This resolves to YES if we are confident that DeepSeek's r1 or DeepSeek's v3 would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047.

Future versions of r1 or v3 (including something like r1.5 or v3.1) DO count towards this, but anything labeled r2 or higher, or v4 or higher, does not.

This resolves to NO if that does not happen.

This resolves early to NO if DeepSeek or others have released new models such that it is essentially impossible for the event to take place, AND the market is trading reliably at <5%, and someone actually notifies me of this.

If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated.

I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences. None. Sorry. Similarly: If there is a dispute on this market that would prove a distraction unjustified by the associated volume, I will probably turn this over to the mods then.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules