Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
Will there be a serious lawsuit against AGI development because x-risk, in the West before 2030?
3
100Ṁ85
2030
47%
chance

Must be:

  • Taken seriously by the court

  • Specifically cite global catastrophic risk, risk to humanity, or something equivalent

  • May be against a company, person, or government

  • Must be against a meaningful attempt to build AGI (current frontier labs count). A lawsuit that a government that isn't developing AGI isn't doing enough to govern it, doesn't count.

Doesn't have to be in a US court, but China is excluded. If Chinese actors file a lawsuit against a Western company in an international court and the company falls under its jurisdiction, that counts.

Judicial Status Criteria:

1. Filing of the Case:

The lawsuit must be formally filed in a recognized court of law with jurisdiction over the defendant (the frontier AI company).

The claims must explicitly allege that the defendant’s AGI development poses a credible risk to humanity.

2. Survives Initial Motions:

The lawsuit must overcome key procedural challenges, such as:

  • Motion to Dismiss: The court denies arguments that the case lacks merit, legal standing, or jurisdiction.

  • Motion for Summary Judgment: If filed, the court finds that the case contains sufficient substantive claims to proceed.

3. Discovery Phase Initiated

4. Substantive Hearings Held

Ruling or Settlement not necessary

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