Dean Ball says "I do not expect DeepSeek to continue open sourcing their frontier models for all that much longer. I give it 12 months, max."
Is he correct?
This resolves YES if, after 3/23/26 and before 3/23/28 DeepSeek releases a model, and then within 3 months of that event releases the weights of that model, where the model in question is clearly their best publicly available model in terms of output quality, and can plausibly be called a 'frontier' model or a model that substantially advances the open weights SotA for output quality (regardless of cost considerations either way).
This resolves NO if, during that period, they release such a model and then does NOT release its weights within 3 months afterwards (I will not wait the 3 months if they make their intent clear here). This model does NOT need to plausibly be called a 'frontier' model or advance the open weights SoTA to count here.
This resolves to fair market price by my judgment, if by the close date (plus any extra time for the 3 month waiting period) neither the YES nor the NO condition is met.
If there is a dispute about how this market and I am genuinely unsure which way to resolve it, I will settle the outcome via a Twitter poll and abide by the results.
(The original version of this started on 3/23/25 for some reason, which is my bad.)
Update 2026-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES until they can confirm the 'plausibly frontier' requirement is met, even if weights are released.
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@ShankarSivarajan Both IT models are released now in addition to the base models. "Max" is the reasoning effort setting which works on either type of model.
@AdamK i'll do 75% if we duplicate the market and remove the phrasing im not sure about related to the model needing to be frontier. i'd rather stick to Dean Ball's phrasing of "their frontier model" which to me means "a model they release that's better than all previous models that they released", regardless of whether they can be said to "substantially advance the open weights SotA for output quality"
@Bayesian This is sitting at the edge of my credence, I think I'll stick to 60% and we can wait later for volume ig