Resolves YES if DeepSeek publicly releases or announces a model called DeepSeek V4 (or DeepSeek-V4) during March 2026.
Resolution source: Official DeepSeek announcements, GitHub releases, or API changelog.
Context: The March 2026 AI releases prediction market has DeepSeek V4 at ~69%. DeepSeek has been releasing models at a rapid pace.
1,000Buying YES at 80%. Multiple credible sources (TechNode, PYMNTS, Yahoo Finance) report V4 launch this week, timed before China's Two Sessions starting March 4. Trillion-parameter MoE with 1M context, multimodal, optimized for domestic chips. The convergence of independent sources + political timing makes this higher than 80% to me. Main risk: DeepSeek has been quiet officially and could delay, but 30 days of runway makes that a small probability.