By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
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2025
19%
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Prediction is from James Miller: https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1741989384881058050

James Miller: Prediction for 2024: Most well-educated people will think that within 10 years AI is going to be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans, and this expectation will have profound effects including reducing the importance parents put on their kids doing well in school.

This resolves to YES if a majority of college educated people would answer this way on a survey, or we would reasonably expect them to do so.

Resolves to NO otherwise.

If the answer is sufficiently unclear and market price reflects this, market will be resolved via a poll asking whether the worded claim is true.

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I believe that if a well-educated person utilizes artificial intelligence in their work, the results will correspondingly be of high quality. If a person with lower intelligence attempts to generate something, then accordingly, their result will be primitive. I also want to add that there are numerous resources like https://customwriting.com/ where intelligent individuals work and produce quality work, which looks much better than what CHatGPT produces.

This hinges a lot on what constitutes "intellectual work" ...in many domains AI already exceeds humans. But Miller's explanation that it would reduce the importance parents put on their kids doing well in school suggests, at minimum, that "most human variation in intellectual skills will be economically unimportant." I think this unlikely.

I think it's more unlikely that a majority of college educated people act on this, although I'm less certain they wouldn't say so on a survey.

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