Prediction is from James Miller: https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1741989384881058050

James Miller: Prediction for 2024: Most well-educated people will think that within 10 years AI is going to be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans, and this expectation will have profound effects including reducing the importance parents put on their kids doing well in school.

This resolves to YES if a majority of college educated people would answer this way on a survey, or we would reasonably expect them to do so.

Resolves to NO otherwise.

If the answer is sufficiently unclear and market price reflects this, market will be resolved via a poll asking whether the worded claim is true.