Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
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Two of my friends had a kid, who is now ~3.5 years old. She seems to be pretty normal for her age, intellect-/skill-wise. This market resolves YES if, at any point before 2040, I think she has displayed greater competence in some knowledge-work domain (e.g. art, writing, programming, people management, personal-assistantship) than the best commercially-available AI product in that domain. Else, NO on Jan 1 2040.
Edit 2023-03-26: by "knowledge work" I mean ~"anything people will pay you for that doesn't involve physical manipulation."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Dreamingpast Hmm, fair! I edited in a specification of "knowledge work": anything not involving physical manipulation.
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