Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
Plus
14
Ṁ1902040
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Two of my friends had a kid, who is now ~3.5 years old. She seems to be pretty normal for her age, intellect-/skill-wise. This market resolves YES if, at any point before 2040, I think she has displayed greater competence in some knowledge-work domain (e.g. art, writing, programming, people management, personal-assistantship) than the best commercially-available AI product in that domain. Else, NO on Jan 1 2040.
Edit 2023-03-26: by "knowledge work" I mean ~"anything people will pay you for that doesn't involve physical manipulation."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@Dreamingpast Hmm, fair! I edited in a specification of "knowledge work": anything not involving physical manipulation.
Related questions
Related questions
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
21% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?
9% chance
Will there be an AI CEO by 2040?
53% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
40% chance
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
40% chance
Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?
61% chance
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
31% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
41% chance
🐕 Will A.I. Achieve Significantly Higher Performance Over "General Conceptual Skills" by end of 2024?
30% chance
🐕 Will Any AI Effectively Achieve Higher than Human Level Reasoning Through Common Sense Questions, By 2024 End?
37% chance