When will "Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI" reach 100%? | Manifold

When will "Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI" reach 100%?

6

Ṁ175Ṁ381

Jan 1

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

22%

By October 1st 2026

34%

By the end of 2026

Right now it's at 98%. (as of August 2026)

You can follow it here:

https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/

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August 2026 - 98%

January 2026 update - 97%

April 2025 update: 94%

opened a Ṁ20 NO at 50% order

It will approach 100% asymptotically

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+3% 1d59% chance

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Will we get AGI before 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

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Will we get AGI before 2032?

Will we get AGI before 2034?

Will we get AGI before 2031?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?