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MANIFOLD
Will a case linked to the Irkutsk plague be reported outside Irkutsk Oblast by November 1?
3
Ṁ1kṀ163
Oct 31
13%
chance
  • Resolves YES if a person outside Irkutsk Oblast is credibly reported as infected with the illness from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute cluster before the end of October PT.

  • I will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

  • The case must be epidemiologically linked to the cluster, for example through contact with a known case or travel from Irkutsk.

  • I will give some time for the reports to be confirmed. If the consensus of credible reporting shifts and the case is confirmed to not be related, then that won't count for YES.

  • The date used for resolution is the first credible report (not supposedly when they are infected). The location is about where they supposedly contracted the illness.

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