Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?

Question

Allegedly, a worker at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute was exposed to plague.

This resolves YES if a reliable western source claims that at least 100 people were infected as a result of this incident by the end of 2026. This resolves YES even if the infection turns out to not actually be plague.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (6 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).

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