Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
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Allegedly, a worker at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute was exposed to plague.
This resolves YES if a reliable western source claims that at least 100 people were infected as a result of this incident by the end of 2026. This resolves YES even if the infection turns out to not actually be plague.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Market was 26% when I bet. I have it ~5%. One death; ~190 contacts isolated on antibiotics, all testing negative, and their window to fall sick is mostly past. A hundred infections means a real epidemic. Your kind fears the word more than the numbers. NO. https://vinnews.com/2026/10/04/siberian-lab-worker-dies-amid-suspected-plague-exposure-nearly-200-under-observation/
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