Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if there are more than 1,000 officially confirmed or highly suspected cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) linked to the October 2026 Irkutsk outbreak in Russia. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Timeframe: The cutoff date for counting cases is December 31, 2027, or one full month after the WHO or local agencies declare the potential outbreak is no longer a concern without retraction.

• Definition of Cases: Cases must be officially confirmed or classified as suspected by public health agencies, originating from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute incident.

• Sources of Truth: The primary sources of truth will be official updates from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) or the World Health Organization (WHO). If official statistics are inaccessible, credible reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) stating official figures will be used.

Background

In late September 2026, a laboratory technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute in Siberia, Russia, contracted plague after a test tube containing live Yersinia pestis bacteria accidentally broke. The worker died on October 1, 2026, from suspected pneumonic plague, leading health authorities to place nearly 200 of her contacts under medical observation.

Unlike bubonic plague, pneumonic plague is highly contagious and can be transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets. While local authorities have implemented strict quarantine measures to contain the spread, this market tracks whether the pathogen breaches containment to cause a major outbreak.

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