This market asks whether the Irkutsk plague of 2026 was caused by, produced through, or resulted from gain-of-function (GOF) research or testing.

The "Irkutsk plague" refers to the disease that emerged in Irkutsk in late-September/early-October 2026. If it emerges that the pathogen in question is not plague, then that disease will be considered as the "Irkutsk plague" in the context of this question.

The market will resolve YES if strong, credible evidence establishes that the pathogen responsible for the Irkutsk plague was created, modified, or made substantially more capable through gain-of-function research, and that this work was causally connected to the outbreak.

The market will resolve NO if strong, credible evidence establishes that the Irkutsk plague did not result from gain-of-function research.

“Strong evidence” should mean evidence sufficient to establish the conclusion with high confidence, such as authoritative investigations, primary-source laboratory or government records, compelling genomic or forensic evidence, or a clear consensus among relevant experts based on publicly available evidence.

This market cannot resolve before January 1, 2040, regardless of what evidence emerges before then.

On or after January 1, 2040:

If strong evidence exists for either YES or NO, the market resolves accordingly.

If there is still no strong evidence either way, the market remains open until 2060.

On January 1, 2060, if strong evidence still does not exist for either conclusion, the market resolves NO.