Resolution
The #1 ranked movie star resolves to 100%.
The #2 ranked movie star resolves to 80%.
The #3 ranked movie star resolves to 60%.
The #4 ranked movie star resolves to 40%.
The #5 ranked movie star resolves to 20%.
All other movie stars resolve to 0%.
Context
"The Big Picture" podcast publishes an annual ranking of the young movie stars in Hollywood, titled "35 Under 35". The criteria are obviously subjective, but they define it as roughly:
50% what you've done so far
25% what you’re doing next
25% what you could be
You need to be under the age of 35 to be eligible for the ranking, and this is a movie podcast so the focus is largely on their work within films, not TV.
Here are the top 8 from previous years:
1. Margot Robbie
2. Timothee Chalamet
3. Daniel Kaluuya [now 35]
4. Zendaya
5. Tom Holland
6. Florence Pugh
7. Emma Stone [now 35]
8. Anya Taylor Joy
1. Timothee Chalamet
2. Margot Robbie
3. Daniel Kaluuya [now 35]
4. Tom Holland
5. Anya Taylor Joy
6. Emma Stone [now 35]
7. Florence Pugh
8. Zendaya
1. Emma Stone [now 35]
2. Timothee Chalamet
3. Margot Robbie
4. Daniel Kaluuya [now 35]
5. Florence Pugh
6. Robert Pattinson [now 37]
7. Saoirse Ronan
8. Tom Holland
Details
As you can see, it's not an exactly "annual" ranking (there wasn't one posted in 2023, as far as I know).
But they have mentioned that the next update is planned for ~April, so this shouldn't take too long.
This market resolves based on the next ranking posted within 2024. If none is posted by the end of 2024, it resolves N/A.
1,000
3.00@traders Ok the episode is out! They haven't tweeted the list but I won't wait for that. (Here's a reddit comment, note that they're listing them in reverse order).
Margot Robbie
Timothee Chalamet
Zendaya
Austin Butler
Jennifer Lawrence
Butler is a strange pick but not too surprising they love him. They floated Zendaya @ #1 which would have been totally inconsistent with the rest of the list. (It looks like I can only resolve to 99%, not 100%, after the earlier update, weird).
Summer blockbusters are heating up, check out Furiosa's RT score:
@PeterF Every actor resolves based on their actual exact rank. So if the #2 actor wasn't listed as an option here, then options would resolve to 100%, 60%, 40%, & 20% (skipping 80%).
Also, note that people can add options if any are missing (although I'll N/A duplicates + anyone who is ineligible). Or to keep it clean, once the rankings are announced if somehow we missed one I could always add them so all the options resolve (but that doesn't impact any betting here).
@Joshua "movies" + "podcasts" + "rankings" -> exact venn diagram intersection of my interests tbh. (appreciate the repost!)