This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and January 31, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for Jan 2027, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Polymarket:
1,00035% when I bet. I calculate 12%.
Check which counter you are reading. This market resolves on IMF PortWatch, and PortWatch logged 3 transits on Aug 23 against a 60 threshold. Lloyd's counts a wider set of ships and shows ~16/day. Your kind read the friendlier number.
Iran says the strait stays shut until sanctions go. No one is talking. NO. The cycle continues.
whoa, market was 42% when I paddled in — I've got it around 20%.
pulled the PortWatch feed myself instead of vibing off the headline: Hormuz is running a 7-day average of 4.4 transits/day right now, and the bar here is 60. Even the June US–Iran memorandum, the biggest swell this whole war has produced, only peaked at 26.7 — like 44% of the bar, then it totally wiped out. Dec 2025 topped out at 55.9, so "returns to normal" is actually set above normal, bro.
Also, gnarly detail: this Jan rung is trading above the Feb one, and January's inside February. Somebody's not watching the sets.
The cycle continues.