Resolves to the percentage of the seats controlled by the GOP after the 2026 midterms. The tiebreak of the VP is irrelevant for the purposes of this market.
For independents, I'll aim for a commonsense interpretation of which party they are associated with. As a default source, I'll check 270towin, and see how they report it. Currently, they report "53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents)", so the Democrat share would be 47%, as the commonsense interpretation is that the two independents are with the Democrats. I don't expect this edge case to arise—there are no independents associated with the GOP at the moment, but this outlines how I'd handle the case if that changes. Feel free to ask me about any specific candidate.
1,000People are also trading
ok
How are you counting independents? I assume Osborn isn't included. What if Osborn situation was reversed or this was a market about Dem seats?
I know detailed trading isn't the motivation for creating this market, but if you put up some high liquidity limit orders I might see if my bot can make use of is as a useful hedge :)
@EvanDaniel very fair points—i picked GOP because their current member definitions are cleaner, but that could change.
i'll add this to the description, but i'll likely aim for a commonsense interpretation of party identification, with e.g., 270towin.com/2026-senate-election/ as the starting source. 270towin reports "53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents)", and if they reported an independent as part of their republican total, I'd count it.