Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
6
120Ṁ11762026
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will close when the following market closes.
Will return yes if the BEA Q3 2024 final estimate is below 0.0% and the NBER dates a recession to have begun in 2024. Will return no if the BEA Q3 2024 final estimate is 0.0% or above and the NBER dates a recession to have begun in 2024. Will return n/a if the NBER does not date a recession to have begun in 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Do professional economic forecasters expect a US recession (two quarters negative GDP growth) to begin in 2025?
17% chance
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
36% chance
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
32% chance
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
22% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
35% chance
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
32% chance
United States Recession by End of Q3?
24% chance
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
27% chance
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
77% chance
Was the US already in a recession in July 2024?
1% chance