What will be the average daily death toll of IDF soldiers inside Gaza strip, during ground invasion, until EOY 2023?
IsraelIsrael-Hamas ConflictArab-Israeli ConflictNew Year's Resolutions 2024
Mini
14
แน€707
resolved Jan 1
100%68%
2-4
1.8%
0-1
16%
5-8
5%
9-16
9%Other

Background

Israel seems poised to invade Gaza with ground troops after the events of October 7th. If they do it, how many troops it will cost per day, on average?

If "Other" gets a really large probability consistently, I might split it off to create more bins.

The end date was chosen to reflect an initial fighting phase. I expect it to be characterized by a different number than a long-term occupation, if it will happen.

For reference, in operation Protective Edge (2014), there was a total of 70 IDF casualties, and major ground presence lasted for a total of 18 days, for an average of 3.8, according to Hebrew wikipedia.

Definitions

  • Any kind of IDF ground troop will count.

  • Only ground troops that die inside the Gaza strip borders will count for the numerator of the average. Troops that die in mustering grounds outside Gaza will not count.

  • Only days in which there are IDF ground troops inside Gaza will count for the denominator of the average. If the IDF pulls out for a week, it will not change the average.

  • Deaths has to happen in 2023

Resolution

  • Resolution source: Israeli or international news publications. Hamas publications will be taken with the appropriate grain of salt.

  • Resolution date: there might be a lag between the end of the year and official numbers for that period. I expect to wait about a week at most, but it might be longer.

  • If there's a meaningful difference between sources, I will use my best judgement.

  • No ground invasion -> resolves NA.

Creator betting

I will not bet on this market.

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Btw, this is very similar to the average in previous ground invasions. Paints a pretty grim picture about the IDF's ability to change things around this time, or the overall cost of the operation to disband Hamas.

According to the IDF website, from the beginning of the invasion on 27/10 there were 187 killed soldiers, for an average of 2.8 per day over the course of 66 days. The result is far away from other bins so I feel comfortable resolving even if new casualties could be announced in the coming days.

Also, in hindsight I made the bins with gaps as if the average is discrete which is dumb, glad the result wasn't controversial.

Numbers so far are in a much smaller range than 9-16. Unless there's a sudden change in the war to Hamas's advantage, theres free mana to take here

The events so far constitute a ground invasion that started on October 27. IDF causalties in Gaza will count for the purposes of this market. These are published in Israeli news publications (Haaretz, for example), so you can follow along and guide your bets that way.

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